Janet Yellen Brookings Institution/Flickr

Warum die Fed den Monetarismus beerdigt hat

LONDON – Die Entscheidung der US Federal Reserve, eine Zinserhöhung aufzuschieben, hätte niemanden überraschen dürfen, der die Äußerungen von Notenbankchefin Janet Yellen aufmerksam verfolgt hat. Die Entscheidung der Fed hat lediglich bestätigt, dass die Notenbank dem internationalen Finanzstress nicht gleichgültig gegenüber steht und dass ihr Ansatz in Bezug auf das Risikomanagement stark auf eine Politik langfristig niedriger Zinsen ausgerichtet ist. Warum also verhielten sich Märkte und Medien, als sei die Maßnahme (oder genauer, die Untätigkeit) der Fed unerwartet gekommen?

Was die Märkte wirklich schockiert hat war nicht die Entscheidung der Fed, noch ein paar Monate länger an der Nullzinspolitik festzuhalten, sondern die damit einhergehende Erklärung. Die Fed ließ erkennen, dass sie keinerlei Bedenken bezüglich der von einer höheren Inflation ausgehenden Risiken hegt und bestrebt ist, die Arbeitslosigkeit unter den von vielen Ökonomen als „natürlich“ angesehenen Wert von etwa 5% zu drücken.

Diese Beziehung zwischen Inflation und Arbeitslosigkeit steht im Kern aller Kontroversen über die Geldpolitik und die Rolle der Notenbanken. Und fast alle modernen Wirtschaftsmodelle – auch die der Fed –, beruhen auf der monetaristischen Zinstheorie, wie sie zuerst Milton Friedman in seiner Präsidentschaftsansprache vor der American Economic Association 1967 vertrat.

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