Janet Yellen Brookings Institution/Flickr

美联储为何抛弃货币主义

发自伦敦——美联储推迟提高利率的决定对于一直关注该机构主席珍娜·耶伦(Janet Yellen)言论的人来说不足为奇。这一决定只不过是确认了美联储并非对国际金融压力无动于衷,而且其风险管理手段仍然坚定倾向于“更低、更长期”的方针。那么,为什么市场和媒体表现的就像美联储的动作(或者更精确地说,不作为)是意料之外呢?

真正震惊市场的并不是美联储决定维持零利率数月,而是伴随这个决定的声明。美联储透露这一决策完全没有考虑高通胀的风险,并急于将失业率推低至大多数经济学家认为的“自然”失业率(约5%)以下。

而关于货币政策和央行行为的所有争论核心正是通货膨胀和失业率之间的关系。而几乎所有的现代经济模式,包括美联储所使用的都基于由米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)在其1967年的美国经济学会主席发言中首先提出的利率货币主义理论。

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