Euro coin and United States dollar bill. Onny Carr/Flickr

La gran divergencia de políticas

WASHINGTON, DC – En las próximas semanas, la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos y el Banco Central Europeo probablemente pongan en práctica políticas notablemente diferentes. La Fed seguramente aumentará las tasas de interés por primera vez en casi diez años. Mientras tanto, se espera que el BCE introduzca otras medidas no convencionales para impulsar las tasas en la dirección contraria, inclusive si eso implica ejercer más presión bajista sobre algunos bonos de gobierno que ya están operando con rendimientos nominales negativos.

Al implementar estas políticas, ambos bancos centrales intentan cumplir con objetivos domésticos exigidos por la legislación que los gobierna. El problema es que puede haber pocos mecanismos ordenados, si es que los hay, para manejar las repercusiones internacionales de esta creciente divergencia.

La Fed está respondiendo a continuos indicios de una generación de empleo robusta en Estados Unidos y otras señales de que la economía del país se está recuperando, aunque de manera moderada. También consciente del riesgo para la estabilidad financiera si las tasas de interés se mantienen en niveles artificialmente bajos, se espera que la Fed las aumente cuando su Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto, encargado de decidir sobre los asuntos de política monetaria, se reúna el 15 y 16 de diciembre. La medida marca un punto de inflexión en la estrategia de la Fed para la economía. Al decidir aumentar las tasas de interés, estará haciendo algo más que simplemente sacar el pie del acelerador del estímulo fiscal; también estará dando un paso considerable hacia la normalización plurianual de su postura general en materia de política monetaria.

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