Euro coin and United States dollar bill. Onny Carr/Flickr

La grande divergence politique

WASHINGTON, DC – Au cours des prochaines semaines, il faut s’attendre à ce que la Réserve fédérale américaine et la Banque centrale européenne mettent en place des politiques sensiblement différentes. La Fed s’apprête en effet à rehausser les taux d’intérêt pour la première fois depuis près de dix ans. Quant à la BCE, il est prévu qu’elle amorce un certain nombre de mesures non conventionnelles supplémentaires afin de pousser les taux d’intérêt dans une direction précisément opposée, même si cela doit signifier exercer encore davantage de pression à la baisse sur certaines obligations d’État, qui se négocient d’ores et déjà selon des rendements nominaux négatifs.

Dans la mise en œuvre de leurs politiques, ces banques centrales poursuivent toutes deux des objectifs domestiques, exigés par la législation qui les gouverne. Seulement voilà, rares – voire inexistants – sont les mécanismes méthodiques destinés à gérer les répercussions internationales de cette divergence croissante.

La Fed réagit actuellement aux signaux continus d’une solide création d’emplois aux États-Unis, ainsi qu’à d’autres aspects semblant indiquer une reprise de l’économie du pays, même modérée. Également consciente du risque d’instabilité financière que soulèverait le maintien des taux d’intérêts à des niveaux artificiellement bas, il est prévu que la Fed rehausse ces taux à l’occasion d’un prochain rassemblement du Comité fédéral du marché ouvert, qui fixe les politiques et qui se réunira les 15 et 16 décembre. Cette démarche marque un tournant dans l’approche économique de la Fed. En décidant de rehausser les taux d’intérêt, la Reserve fédérale fera bien plus que lever le pied de l’accélérateur de la relance financière ; elle franchira également une importante étape en direction de la normalisation sur plusieurs années de sa posture politique globale.

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