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Incertidumbre en la Fed

BERKELEY – La Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos corre cada vez más riesgo de perder credibilidad -y con razón-. Como sostuvo recientemente Narayana Kocherlakota, ex presidente del Banco de la Reserva Federal de Minneapolis, los funcionarios de la Fed parecen estar equilibrando su objetivo manifiesto de mantener la inflación cerca del 2% en el largo plazo con otras muchas consideraciones no explícitas.

En declaraciones públicas, los funcionarios han dado algunas señales de cuáles pueden llegar a ser esas otras consideraciones. Entre ellas parecen estar el riesgo de distorsión en el sistema financiero, la preocupación de que el desempleo pueda caer a mínimos insostenibles y los temores de que si se aumentan las tasas de interés demasiado rápido la recuperación económica pueda verse afectada. Pero el hecho es que los criterios de la Fed para cambiar las tasas de interés son, en su mayor parte, tácitos y poco claros, lo que hace difícil predecir cuáles serán sus próximos pasos. 

"Este tipo de incertidumbre -sobre qué objetivos definirán las políticas de la Fed- no es saludable", dijo Kocherlakota. "Los consumidores y las empresas no pueden tomar buenas decisiones si no tienen una percepción lo suficientemente fuerte de cómo actuará el banco central en cualquier situación".

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