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Incertitude à la Fed

BERKELEY – La Réserve fédérale américaine risque de plus en plus de perdre sa crédibilité -  et à juste titre. Comme l'a soutenu récemment Narayana Kocherlakota, l'ancienne présidente de la Banque fédérale de réserve de Minneapolis, les dirigeants de la Fed semblent tenter de concilier leur objectif déclaré de maintenir l'inflation proche de 2 % à long terme, avec une foule d'autres considérations imprécises.

Lors de déclarations publiques, les dirigeants ont donné quelques indications sur ce que pourraient être ces autres considérations. Ils semblent tenir compte du risque de distorsion au sein du système financier, d'inquiétudes relatives à une possible chute du chômage à des bas niveaux non durables, ainsi que de préoccupations au sujet d'une hausse trop rapide des taux d'intérêt, qui pourrait perturber la reprise économique. Mais il n'en reste pas moins que les critères de la Fed pour modifier les taux d'intérêt sont la plupart du temps tacites et peu clairs, ce qui rend ses intentions difficiles à prévoir.

« Ce type d'incertitude (sur le choix des objectifs politiques de la Fed), n'est pas sain, » déclare Kocherlakota. « Les consommateurs et les entreprises ne peuvent pas prendre de bonnes décisions s'ils ne comprennent pas suffisamment en détails de quelle manière la Banque centrale entend agir dans telle ou telle situation. »

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