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美联储的不确定性

伯克利—美联储正面临越来越大的失去信誉的风险——并且不无道理。明尼阿波利斯联储银行前行长纳拉亚纳·科薛拉科塔(Narayana Kocherlakota)最近指出,美联储官员似乎正在他们的规定使命——将长期通胀保持在2%附近和其他一些隐含的考虑因素之间寻找平衡。

美联储官员在公开资料中给出了一些关于这些其他考虑因素是什么的线索。它们似乎包括金融系统扭曲风险、对失业可能下降至不可持续的低位的担心,以及对过快提高利率破坏经济复苏的担心。但事实仍然是美联储改变利率的标准在很大程度上从未公布也不清不楚,这让人难以预测它会如何行动。

 “这种不确定性——关于哪些目标决定美联储的政策的不确定性——是不健康的,”科薛拉科塔说,“如果消费者和企业无法获得关于央行在任何情况下如何行动的足够强的感觉,他们就无法做出好决策。”

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