Fisherman in Brazil

El riesgo de la Fed para las economías emergentes

MILÁN – Finalmente y tras una década de muy bajas tasas de interés, la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos ha elevado en 25 puntos base la tasa de sus fondos federales (sobre la que se basan todas las demás tasas de interés), haciendo que la nueva tasa pase a ser de un 0,5% (todavía muy baja). La Presidenta de la Fed Janet Yellen ha prometido una y otra vez que los aumentos futuros serán graduales. Considerando el estado de la economía estadounidense (crecimiento real del 2%, un mercado laboral a la baja y pocas evidencias de que la inflación suba por sobre el objetivo del 2% que se ha propuesto la Fed), pienso que esta medida es un paso razonable y cauteloso hacia la normalidad (que se puede definir como un mejor equilibrio entre prestatarios y acreedores).

Sin embargo, a los bancos centrales de las economías en que la brecha de producción es mayor a la de Estados Unidos no les convendrá seguir su ejemplo, lo que implica que se producirá un periodo de divergencia de las políticas monetarias con inciertas consecuencias para la economía global.

Frente a esto, este pequeñísimo ajuste a la tasa estadounidense  no debería causar grandes cambios en los flujos de capital globales. Sin embargo, a medida que la política monetaria busque la normalización de las tasas de interés, bien podría haber efectos de rebote, tanto económicos como financieros, y especialmente en forma de volatilidad de las divisas y fugas desestabilizantes de capitales desde las economías emergentes.

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