Fisherman in Brazil

I rischi della Fed per le economie emergenti

MILANO – La Federal Reserve ha finalmente, dopo quasi un decennio di fedeltà a tassi di interesse molto bassi, alzato il suo tasso di interesse sui fondi federali - il tasso da cui tutti gli altri tassi di interesse nell'economia prendono spunto - di 25 punti base. Ciò porta il nuovo tasso allo 0,5%, e il presidente della Fed Janet Yellen ha saggiamente promesso che eventuali aumenti futuri saranno graduali. Considerato lo stato dell'economia negli Stati Uniti - una crescita reale del 2%, un mercato del lavoro restrittivo, e pochi segni di inflazione in aumento verso l’obiettivo del 2% della Fed – vedo il rialzo dei tassi come il primo passo ragionevole e prudente verso la normalità (definita come un migliore equilibrio tra debitori e creditori).

Tuttavia, altre banche centrali, in particolare nelle economie in cui l'output gap è maggiore rispetto agli Stati Uniti, non saranno entusiaste di seguire l'esempio della Fed. Ciò implica che si verificherà un periodo di divergenza nella politica monetaria, con conseguenze incerte per l'economia globale.

All’apparenza, un piccolo cambiamento nel tasso degli Stati Uniti non dovrebbe provocare drammatici cambiamenti nei flussi di capitali globali. Ma, poiché la politica monetaria statunitense segue il percorso di normalizzazione dei tassi di interesse, ci potrebbero essere effetti a catena, sia economici che finanziari, in particolare sotto forma di volatilità dei cambi e di flussi in uscita destabilizzanti da parte delle economie emergenti.

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