J. Bradford DeLong, Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and the author of Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century (Basic Books, 2022). He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.
发自伯克利—在2022年2月初，美国债券市场的未来五年之五年期消费者物价指数（CPI）通胀平衡率在每年2%左右徘徊——这个数字对应的是5~10年后每年1.6%的环比加权个人消费支出（PCE）通胀预测。由于1.6%的通胀率大大低于美国联邦储备委员会设定的2%目标，我在进入那个月时对自己身处“短期性阵营”的感觉相当良好——或者至少是在 “美联储已经搞定了这一切阵营”或“通胀预期仍然稳固锚定阵营”。
但就在那个月底，俄罗斯总统普京这个梦想晋身莫斯科大公的人下令闪击乌克兰。局势并没有按照他计划的发展。乌克兰人抵挡住了最初的猛攻，双方都为更长时间的消耗战做好了准备。能源、粮食和化肥价格暴涨。世界开始担心到冬天欧洲会冻成一团而其他许多国家——从埃及到尼日利亚——则会挨饿。
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