American flag after storm Tom Gill/Flickr

美国的高风险复苏

美国剑桥—美国经济正在走向充分就业,也许已经达到了这一水平。但美国有利的就业趋势伴随着金融部门风险的大幅增加,这是因为为了实现目前的经济复苏而实施了过于宽松的货币政策。

总体失业率已降至5.5%,大学毕业生失业率更是只有2.5%。经济达到如此就业水平时常常出现的通胀的增加因为石油价格下跌和美元升值20%而被暂时遏制。升值的美元不但降低了进口品的成本,也给予进口品竞争的国产商品造成了降价压力。通胀可能在未来一年中开始上升。

回归充分就业反映了美联储的“非常规货币政策”——被称为量化宽松的大规模长期资产购买计划与承诺将短期利率维持在近零水平的组合。这一政策让所有利率都呈现出低水平,促使投资者购买股票,并提高了自住住房的价格。结果,2013年美国家庭净财富增加了10万亿美元,促使消费支出和商业投资增加。

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