La Fed tend un autre piège

NEW HAVEN – La Réserve fédérale américaine a emprunté une voie familière et très dangereuse. Ancrée dans le déni de ses erreurs passées, la Fed poursuit la même approche progressive qui a contribué à préparer le terrain pour la crise financière de 2008-2009. Les conséquences pourraient être tout aussi catastrophiques.

Voyons ce qui s'est passé à la réunion de décembre du Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), où des discussions en vue d'augmenter le taux des fonds fédéraux de référence ont été formulées par des adjectifs, plutôt que par des actions explicites.

Conformément aux instructions prospectives selon lesquelles le taux directeur doit rester proche de zéro pendant une durée « considérable » après que le Fed ait arrêté ses achats d'actifs à long terme en octobre, le FOMC a déclaré être à présent en mesure de se montrer « patient » et d'attendre les bonnes conditions pour relever le taux. Ajoutez à cela la déclaration de la Directrice de la Fed Janet Yellen, selon qui il faudra au moins deux autres réunions du FOMC avant que ne se produise un tel « décollage » et la Fed semble être en train de télégraphier un voyage prolongé sur la route des mesures de normalisation.

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