美联储货币紧缩会不会搞垮新兴市场?

坎布里奇——随着被外界广为期待和猜测的美联储在美启动短期利率上调的日子越来越近,很多人都无法确定新兴市场经济将受到哪些冲击。 事实上,这个问题的提出始于2013年5月,时任美联储主席伯南克公开宣布将在当年晚些时候“收紧”量化宽松政策。该声明使美长期利率攀升,并导致资金流出新兴市场。

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德提醒我们这种担忧已经不是第一次,比方说在1982和1994年,当时美联储货币政策收紧导致发展中国家陷入金融危机。如果美联储今年决定加息,哪些新兴经济体最容易受到资本流出的打击?

新兴市场无疑对全球市场波动极为敏感,这当中不仅包括美国的利率变化,还包括波动指数等其他金融风险。美国低利率所带来的充足现金流往往能稳定全球金融市场,但一旦条件逆转却会导致资金流突然枯竭。

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