US Dollar.

La Fed s’est laissée distraire par le dollar

CAMBRIDGE – Dans le cadre de sa déclaration de politique générale de septembre, la Réserve fédérale américaine a pris en considération – de manière importante – l'impact de l'évolution économique mondiale sur les Etats-Unis, et donc sur la politique monétaire américaine. En effet, la Fed a décidé de retarder la hausse des taux d'intérêt en partie parce que les décideurs américains s’attendent à une appréciation du dollar qui, en faisant baisser les prix à l'importation, risquerait de saper leur capacité à atteindre leur cible de 2% d'inflation.

En réalité, bien que les mouvements de devises puissent avoir un impact significatif sur l'inflation dans les autres pays, les fluctuations du dollar ont rarement eu un impact significatif ou durable sur les prix aux États-Unis. La différence, bien sûr, réside dans le rôle dominant du dollar dans la facturation du commerce international: les prix sont fixés en dollars.

Tout comme le dollar est souvent l'unité de compte dans les contrats d'emprunt, même lorsque ni l'emprunteur ni le prêteur ne sont une entité américaine, la part du dollar dans la facturation du commerce international est d'environ 4,5 fois la part de l'Amérique dans les importations mondiales et trois fois sa part dans les exportations mondiales. Les prix de quelques 93% des importations américaines sont fixés en dollars.

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