Fed chair Janet Yellen Yin Bogu/ZumaPress

美联储升息后的新兴市场

纽约—美联储将于今年晚些时候开始退出零利率政策,这一前景让人们日益担心新兴经济体货币、债券和股市波动将卷土重来。这一担心不难理解:2013年美联储放出信号表示即将结束量化宽松政策时,由此到来的“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)在诸多新兴国家金融市场和经济中引起余震。

事实上,人们担心,美国利率的上升以及美元价值的继续上升可能重创新兴市场政府、金融机构、公司甚至家庭。在过去几年中,所有这些部门借入了数以万亿计的美元,如今,它们将面临债务实际本币价值的上升,而与此同时,美国利率的升高将进一步推高新兴市场国内利率,从而进一步增加债务维持负担。

但是,尽管美联储升息的前景可能造成新兴国家金融市场的剧烈动荡,但爆发全面危机和灾难的风险比较有限。首先,2013年的削减恐慌让市场措手不及,但美联储在今年升息的意图已经明确表态了好几个月,不会再让市场措手不及。此外,美联储升息时机和节奏可能会比此前几个周期更晚更慢,采取逐步响应的方式,以符合美国经济增长之稳健足以维持更高的借贷成本的信号。更加强劲的增长将有益于向美国出口商品和服务的新兴市场。

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