La guerra equivocada para la banca central

PEKÍN  – Por obsesionarse con la fijación de objetivos de inflación en un mundo sin inflación, los bancos centrales han perdido su rumbo. Ya que las tasas de interés de referencia se encuentran atrapadas en el temido límite cero, la política monetaria se ha transformado y ha pasado de ser un agente de la estabilidad de precios a ser un motor de inestabilidad financiera. Se necesita urgentemente un nuevo enfoque.

La Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos es un ejemplo de este dilema de políticas. Después de que el Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto decidiera en septiembre diferir una vez más el inicio de su tan esperada normalización de la política monetaria, sus asesores financieros a quienes se denomina las palomas de la inflación por preferir tasas de interés más bajas, de manera abierta se pusieron a hacer campaña a favor de un nuevo aplazamiento.

Para los puristas de los objetivos de inflación, el argumento parece ser impecable. El índice general de precios al consumidor (IPC) está cerca de cero, y la inflación subyacente o “básica” –  el indicador favorito de la Fed – continúa en un nivel significativamente inferior al aparentemente sacrosanto 2%.  Debido a que el largamente anémico período de recuperación se muestra inestable otra vez, los asesores que pertenecen al grupo de las palomas sostienen que no hay ninguna razón para actuar con premura adelantándose en el establecimiento de alzas de tasas de interés.

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