La mauvaise guerre menée par les services de banque centrale

PÉKIN – Fixées sur les objectifs d'inflation dans un monde sans inflation, les banques centrales se sont égarées. Avec des taux d'intérêt de référence bloqués à la redoutable borne zéro, la politique monétaire s'est transformée d'un agent de stabilité des prix en un moteur d'instabilité financière. Le monde a désespérément besoin d'une nouvelle approche.

La Réserve fédérale américaine illustre ce dilemme politique. Une fois que le Federal Open Market Committee a décidé en septembre de reporter une nouvelle fois le début de la normalisation tant attendue de la politique monétaire, ses colombes de l'inflation ont fait ouvertement campagne pour un autre report.

L'argument semble impeccable aux puristes du ciblage de l'inflation. L'indice des prix à la consommation (IPC) est proche de zéro et l'inflation « tendancielle » ou sous-jacente (l'indicateur préféré de la Fed), reste nettement inférieur à ce que l'on considère comme l'objectif sacro-saint de 2%. Avec une reprise aussi longue qu'anémique et d'allure à nouveau fragile, les colombes soutiennent qu'il n'y a aucune raison de se précipiter vers les hausses de taux d'intérêt.

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