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货币和通胀陷阱

Nov 23, 2021 Raghuram G. Rajan

发自芝加哥—美国的价格上涨正在各类商品和服务中大肆蔓延，而通货膨胀也可以在诸如运输、能源以及（日益显现的）劳动力等大范围商业投入品中被发现。那么我们应该期待中央银行家们对此做出何种应对呢？

美国联邦储备委员会已经强调它只会在彻底断绝其每月资产采购（按照当前缩减速度将会在2022年7月的某个时点）之后才会考虑提高利率。即便如此，仍有一些美联储联邦公开市场委员会委员担心届时央行将落后于形势，迫使其更加出其不意地将利率提升到更高的水平，而且比预期延续更长的时间。为此美联储副主席理查德·克拉里达（Richard Clarida）最近表示美联储可能会在其成员于12月再次开会时考虑加快收紧速度（以便能够更早开始加息）。

尽管美联储有着越来越多（且往往是不对外透露的）的忧虑，但如今的央行行长们却不愿将通胀视为一个问题。要是在以前出现了这样的通胀水平，他们会挺直腰杆，目光坚定地看着电视摄像机说出“我们讨厌通胀，一定会消灭它”之类的话。但如今他们更可能会为通胀寻找借口并向公众保证通胀很快就会自行消失。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 13 Comments on this article

Emilio Zuniga Nov 30, 2021

Inflation is all over the world. The main force behind it is supply bottle necks. Therefore, monetary policies though necessary will have a limited effect to dump it. Interest rises need to be carefully set, otherwise, it could feed rising inflationary expectations .
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Jeff Graubart Nov 28, 2021

One unexpected side effect of the Fed's monetary policy is the creation of supply shocks. This is due to the ratio of capital costs between large corporations who can issue bonds (and zombie companies that have the connections to issue bonds) and the capital costs to small and mid-sized business that must borrow from a bank. In an environment where real interest rates are negative, that ratio is "beyond infinity" if such a concept exists. Small businesses pay a positive real interest rate while huge corporations are given money to borrow. This is driving small business to ruin. While major corporations pick up the most profitable aspects of the ruined businesses, some goods and even more services go unmet, leading to supply shocks. The resulting inflation proves that in the very long run, money is still neutral and though it is cliche, the day of reckoning is upon us.
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Frans Withofs Nov 28, 2021

In my opinion central banks have created moral hazards favour of governments and of the financial industry:
1) for governments since 2008 with the continuous massive implementation of QE by creating huge amounts of excess reserves( what is this kind of monetary policy...?). By doing so monetary policy became subordinate to fiscal policy and central banks independence became merely a façade. Former central bankers were well aware that fiat money needs a strong and independent central bank.
2) since Greenspan the financial industry knows very well that the central bank will not let them fall and that in the end they will receive the necessary backing.

Well, yes, I agree central banks are in an uncomfortable position( by their own doing) and they will have to move very carefully.
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Dallas Weaver, Ph.D. Nov 26, 2021

From the viewpoint of a retired person with no pension beyond SS, I depend upon my savings to survive my last decade (if things go well). As was considered prudent for someone in my position, my savings are in actual savings and bonds and only some equities. I view the government-created inflation as a form of theft of my savings.

Inflation is a very cruel theft of savings.

More importantly, it destroys long-term economic planning to the detriment/destruction of society. How do you make rational physical asset decisions and compute IRR for various life products, especially with long lifetimes (like solar power systems) when you face an unknown value of money. When inflation hits the instability point, long-term rational investments in real assets become impossible to the point where people just buy rebar as a store of value (witnessed this in Brazil years ago) that rusts in their yards.

Unlike other countries like Turkey where people can use dollars, where do we run to? China, Japan, or Europe?
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Thaomas H Nov 25, 2021

I'm not aware that the Fed had any "difficulty" in keeping average inflation up at its target rate. It could have used QE more vigorously, abandoned paying IOR, and certainly need not have raised ST rates when average inflation since 2008 was still below target. Nor is there any difficulty in promptly eliminating its purchase of LT bonds. Not doing so looks like a mistake, but not because it is facing a "difficulty."
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Paul Friesen Nov 24, 2021

"When rates move up, the Fed itself will have to start paying higher rates, reducing the dividend it pays the government and increasing the size of the fiscal deficit."

Huh? Perhaps my omniscience is not quite complete, but I thought the FED owns government bonds, and if the interest rate on those bonds goes up, the FED gets more interest, increasing the dividend it pays. Can anybody enlighten me? Or is the author wrong?
- Leon Myburgh Nov 25, 2021
  
  The reference is to all the reserve deposits of the banking sector with the Fed, on which the Fed pays interest. This is thanks to the quantitative easing that has taken place. The recipients are the commercial banks in this case.
  - Paul Friesen Nov 25, 2021
    
    Thanks. Seems to make sense. But is it not true that the central bank gets more interest from the government, (which it then pays back to the government as its profit)? Any idea how of the magnitude of that flow compares to the magnitude of the total interest paid on excess reserves?
    - Leon Myburgh Nov 27, 2021
      
      Indeed, the Fed does own a huge amount of securities (Treasuries and MBS). My understanding is that most of these securities are fixed rate, so higher rates do not equal higher interest income, unless they mature and are reinvested. Higher yields may even lead to mark-to-market losses, depending on the accounting structure used. The interest rate on the reserve accounts, however, is linked to the Fed Funds rate, so if interest rates go up, the interest paid goes up.
      - Paul Friesen Nov 27, 2021
        
        My understanding is that the FED buys very short-term government bonds, I think on the order of months. So if interest rates go up, it will soon be paying more interest to the government.
        
        I guess I should do some research on this if I really want the answer. Just too lazy and too many other things to do. But your point about the interest on excess reserves is well taken. I know it is true that they shot up to completely unprecedented levels following 2008.
        
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Shola Ogunniyi Nov 24, 2021

#Catch 22 .

It seems the best options will be hoping the scenario of post 2008 financial crises played out via disinflationary waves by China and other emerging markets. Or the world should learn to live with higher inflation rates. Or perhaps a global rebalancing in wealth distribution is required, because the recent wealth amassed by the utmost rich in the global north was primarily as a result of the huge accommodating money policies. Asset prices are so elevated without solid fundamental justifications. Will the Central Banks prick the asset prices ?
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B Wilds Nov 23, 2021

We might soon be witness to the first global inflationary depression.Several factors make this scenario possible, they are outlined below. If this does occur, fortunes will be made and lost. As investors shift into assets that do well during times of inflation, it is possible they may set in motion a self-feeding loop or cycle. More about this in the following article.

https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/03/the-first-global-inflationary.html
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https://prosyn.org/1o6L54xzh

货币和通胀陷阱

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