unemployment Mario Tama/Getty Images

美联储下注剩余劳动力

伦敦—最近几周,美联储采取了更加渐进的政策正常化方针,这提振了市场。美联储主席耶伦3月底的最新公开讲话比预期更加“鸽派”。此外,在上一次会议上,美联储表示将在2016年实施两次而不是四次四分之一个百分点的升息。结果是投资者出售美元,买入提振股价和美国国债,大宗商品和新兴市场资产也大幅上扬。

乍一看,这些情况相当有趣。一方面,美联储的决定似乎与美国通胀正在加速的信号相悖。如果如一些人所认为的那样,美联储是在应对全球增长担忧,那么风险资产——首先是大宗商品和新兴市场——反弹就没有依据。但有一个逻辑线条可以解释这些显而易见的不一致,其核心是一个潜在后果巨大的美联储赌注。

在审视这一赌注之前,不妨考虑以下对市场反弹的其他解释。第一种解释的核心是欧洲央行和日本银行的货币宽松。但负利率和平坦收益率曲线伤害了银行利润;反常货币政策与增长或通胀之间的联系仍然模糊;并且显然如今货币政策的回报已在逐渐下降。

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