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斯坦福大学—世界上许多央行已经根据2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)和导致疫情大流行的经验,正式审查其货币政策战略。不幸的是,他们似乎从所面临的挑战中吸取了错误的教训。
最先完成这一进程的是美国联邦储备系统,它决定转向一种新“灵活形式的平均通胀目标制”策略,这是美联储主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在8月份杰克逊霍尔货币政策会议(Jackson Hole monetary policy conference)年会演讲中所提出的。同样,欧洲央行行长拉加德(Christine Lagarde)最近在第21届欧洲央行观察家会议(ECB Watchers)上表示,欧洲央行正在进行其 “货币政策战略审评估”。而据日本央行行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)透露,目前正与首相菅义伟的新政府讨论如何应对疫情,以及新货币政策战略是否妥当。
从这些讨论来看,此前似乎有一项改革整个国际货币体系的行动在进行,每个国家或地区都采取与美联储相似的战略,不过要根据自身情况进行调整。但现在看来已经不是这样了。“至少,”前首席经济学家、欧洲央行董事会成员奥特马尔·伊辛(Otmar Issing)认为,“其他央行不应盲从美联储的新战略。”
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