Rozpočty v eurozóně pod drobnohledem

DUBLIN – Trhy s dluhopisy nechvalně prosluly tím, že kolísají, často ve vleku pocitů namísto rigorózní makroekonomické analýzy, a jak předvedla globální finanční krize roku 2008, nejsou ani zdaleka neomylné. Obzvlášť nespolehlivé mohou být při hodnocení dlouhodobých vyhlídek ekonomiky.

Úrokové sazby napříč Evropskou unií jsou sice na historických minimech, ale kdyby trhy s dluhopisy přehodnotily rizikovost suverénních dlužníků, vládní dluhy v eurozóně by se mohly dostat pod silný tlak. Zadlužené vlády předkládající Evropské komisi své rozpočty k prověrce by tato úvaha měla značně tížit.

Iracionální rozjařenost (anebo její opak) může strhnout nejen obchodníky s dluhopisy. Mýlit se mohou i verdikty ratingových agentur nad kvalitou aktiv. Velmi často se zdá, že se hodnotitelé spokojí s tím, že náladu neurčují, ale následují. Jako příslovečný řidič autobusu, který, zahleděn do dění ve zpětném zrcátku, nesleduje, co se děje před ním, se příliš mnoho analytiků v oblasti dluhopisů soustředí na historické údaje o ekonomice jako klíčový ukazatel budoucího směřování.

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