聚光灯下的欧元区预算

都柏林—债券市场向来变化无常,常常被情绪而不是靠谱的宏观经济分析推动,而正如2008年全球金融危机所表明的,债券市场也绝不是永远正确的。在评估经济的长期前景时,债券市场可能极不靠谱。

尽管欧元区上下利率位于历史低点,但如果债券市场重新评估主权借款人的风险,欧元区政府债务可能面临严重压力。在负债国政府向欧盟委员会递交预算以供检查时,它们应该考虑这一点。

受非理性繁荣(或相反)左右的并不只是债券交易员。评级机构对资产质量的判断同样可能存在缺陷。评级者更喜欢追随而不是引导情绪,这种事情已经见怪不改了。就像寓言中看后视镜而不是眼前的巴士司机一样,太多债券分析员关注历史经济数据,以此作为未来表现的关键决定因素。

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