勇敢无畏的金融市场

有些深谋远虑的观察家¾比如花旗集团的罗伯特•鲁宾(Robert Rubin)、哈佛大学的拉里•萨默斯(Larry Summers)和《金融时报》的马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf)¾最近几个月相继表示对金融市场的风险认知感到迷惑不解。尽管根据市场判断当今世界¾特别是与之相关联的美元和证券从历史的角度看风险不大,但实际情况是地理政治风险相当可观。以沃尔夫为例,他提出金融市场对“长线小额盈利”采取一种“鸵鸟政策”,从一开始就不重视“偶然的金融灾难”,而一旦发生损失则统统归咎于“无法预见的厄运”。

但如果今天的投资者希望确保不受地理政治灾害的影响,他或她究竟该怎么做呢?根据第一次世界大战前那代人的经验,人们普遍认为金本位的国债是安全资产,能够为曾经困扰墨西哥、法国或美国等国的大众通货膨胀病毒提供保护。但英国国债投资者却由于英国投身第一次世界大战所造成的通货膨胀蒙受了巨大的损失,而购买沙俄国债的投资者在10月革命后用手中的债券来裱糊厕所的顶棚。

经历了第一次世界大战的通货膨胀,精明的投资者也许认为黄金由于其唾手可得、容易携带和货真价实的特性而成为一种颇具诱惑力的资产形态。但问题是黄金无法流动,而资本却可以再生。无论如何,美国的黄金持有者发现自己的资产在大萧条最黑暗的低谷被罗斯福政府强制兑换成了纸质货币。第二次世界大战后,似乎没有第二种方法比在美国投资更为保险。可是在20世纪70年代,美国股票和长期债券的投资者损失了将近半数的本金,即使是短期美国债券的投资者都在70年代末损失了占实际投资额20%的资产。

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