tightrope walker Don Emmert | getty images

Il fattore timore nei mercati globali

CAMBRIDGE – La fenomenale volatilità del mercato dello scorso anno deve molto ai rischi reali e alle incertezze su fattori come la crescita cinese, le banche europee e l’eccesso di petrolio. Per i primi due mesi di quest'anno, molti investitori temevano che anche gli Stati Uniti, la storia di crescita più incoraggiante del mondo, stavano per cadere in recessione. Infatti, tra gli esperti che partecipano al sondaggio mensile del Wall Street Journal, il 21% ritiene che una recessione è dietro l'angolo.

Non nego che ci sono dei rischi. Una crescita abbastanza grande della Cina o del sistema finanziario europeo potrebbe certamente far pendere l'economia globale dalla crescita lenta alla recessione. Un pensiero ancora più spaventoso è che il prossimo anno nello stesso periodo, la presidenza degli Stati Uniti potrebbe trasformarsi in un reality show televisivo.

Tuttavia, da un punto di vista macroeconomico, i fondamentali non sono così male. I dati sull’ occupazione sono stati positivi, la fiducia dei consumatori è solida e il settore petrolifero non è abbastanza grande rispetto al Pil perché il crollo dei prezzi porti l'economia degli Stati Uniti in ginocchio. Infatti, il driver della fiducia dei mercati più sottovalutato in questo momento è la paura di un'altra crisi enorme.

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