tightrope walker Don Emmert | getty images

Der Angstfaktor an den Weltmärkten

CAMBRIDGE – Die phänomenale Marktvolatilität des vergangenen Jahres hat eine Menge mit echten Risiken und Unsicherheiten in Bezug auf Faktoren wie das Wachstum in China, die europäischen Banken und das Ölüberangebot zu tun. Während der ersten zwei Monate dieses Jahres herrschte bei vielen Anlegern Panik, dass selbst die USA, wo das Wachstum derzeit am stabilsten ist, in die Rezession geraten könnten. Sogar unter den Experten, die an der Monatsbefragung des Wall Street Journal teilnahmen, waren 21% der Ansicht, dass eine Rezession unmittelbar bevorsteht.

Ich will nicht bestreiten, dass es Risiken gibt. Sollte das Wachstum in China oder das europäische Finanzsystem einen ausreichend schweren Schlag abbekommen, könnte das mit Sicherheit dazu führen, dass die Weltwirtschaft aus ihrem derzeitigen schwachen Wachstum in die Rezession abgleitet. Ein noch furchterregenderer Gedanke ist, dass sich in einem Jahr die US-Präsidentschaft in eine Reality-TV-Sendung verwandelt haben könnte.

Doch aus gesamtwirtschaftlicher Perspektive sind die Rahmendaten gar nicht so schlecht. Die Beschäftigungszahlen sind gut, das Vertrauen der Verbraucher solide, und der Ölsektor ist im Vergleich zum BIP einfach nicht groß genug, als dass der Zusammenbruch der Preise die US-Volkswirtschaft in die Knie zwingen könnte. Tatsächlich ist der am stärksten unterschätzte Faktor bei der Markstimmung derzeit die Angst vor einer weiteren enormen Krise.

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