tightrope walker Don Emmert | getty images

De factor angst op de wereldmarkt

CAMBRIDGE – De ongekende volatiliteit op de markten de afgelopen jaren heeft veel te maken met reële risico’s en onzekerheden over factoren zoals de Chinese groei, Europese banken, en het overaanbod van olie. De eerste twee maanden van dit jaar raakten veel investeerders in paniek dat zelfs de Verenigde Staten, ’s werelds meest geruststellende groeiverhaal, in een recessie zou vervallen. Van de experts die meedoen aan de maandelijkse enquête in het Wall Street Journal geloofde 21% zelfs dat er een recessie stond te wachten.

Ik zal niet ontkennen dat er risico’s zijn. Een grote tegenslag voor de Chinese groei of het Europese financiële systeem zou de wereldeconomie zeker van een langzame groei naar een recessie kunnen doen kantelen. Een zelfs nog schrikbarender gedachte is dat tegen deze tijd volgend jaar het Amerikaanse presidentschap wellicht in een reality-tv-show veranderd is.

Toch zijn de basisvoorwaarden uit een macro-economisch oogpunt zo slecht nog niet. De werkgelegenheidscijfers zijn sterk geweest, het consumentenvertrouwen is stabiel, en de oliesector is gewoon niet groot genoeg in relatie tot het bbp dat de ineenstorting van de prijzen de Amerikaanse economie op zijn knieën te zal krijgen. In feite is de meest onderschatte aanjager van het marktsentiment momenteel de angst voor nog een grote crisis.

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