tightrope walker Don Emmert | getty images

Faktor strachu na globálních trzích

CAMBRIDGE – Fenomenální tržní volatilitu uplynulého roku do značné míry zapříčinila skutečná rizika a nejistoty kolem faktorů, jako jsou čínský růst, evropské banky a nadbytek ropy. V prvních dvou měsících letošního roku propadli mnozí investoři panice z toho, že i Spojené státy coby země s nejúspěšnějším růstem brzy upadnou do recese. Plných 21% expertů, kteří se účastní měsíčního průzkumu deníku Wall Street Journal, se domnívalo, že recese je za humny.

Nebudu popírat, že rizika existují. Dostatečně velká rána pro čínský růst nebo evropskou finanční soustavu by jistě mohla překlopit globální ekonomiku z pomalého růstu do recese. A ještě děsivěji působí představa, že americký prezidentský úřad se příští rok ve stejnou dobu promění v televizní reality show.

Z makroekonomického hlediska však základní ukazatele nevypadají tak špatně. Údaje o zaměstnanosti jsou silné, spotřebitelská důvěra je solidní a ropný sektor nedosahuje ve vztahu k HDP takové velikosti, aby jeho cenový kolaps srazil americkou ekonomiku na kolena. Nejvíce nedoceněným motorem tržní nálady je tak v současné době strach z další obrovské krize.

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