Russie et Géorgie parano

La victoire de Mikhaïl Saakashvili lors de l'élection Présidentielle de Géorgie était le dénouement prévisible de la « révolution des roses » de novembre qui força Édouard Chevardnadze à se retirer après plus d'une décennie au pouvoir. Reste à savoir ce que le voisin du nord de la Géorgie, la Russie, doit attendre de ce nouveau trio au pouvoir : Mikhaïl Saakashvili, Nino Bourdjanadze et Zourab Zhvania.

En dépit du malaise post-soviétique de la Russie, elle a réussi à influencer le développement interne de la Géorgie à pratiquement chaque moment, jusqu'à la démission de Chevardnadze, qui fut négociée par le ministre russe des affaires étrangères, Igor Ivanov. Ainsi sa perception des nouveaux dirigeants de la Géorgie est d'une importance géopolitique capitale. Les trois dirigeants géorgiens ont affirmé leur attachement aux relations bilatérales et en Russie aussi, l'espoir est grand que leur victoire permette de restaurer les liens entre ces deux pays.

Mais l'inquiétude est grande par ailleurs quant aux déclarations antirusses faites à l'occasion par le passé par cette nouvelle génération de dirigeants et certains craignent que le Président Saakashvili ne lance une campagne militaire pour ramener les républiques séparatiste de l'Abkhazie et l'Ossétie du Sud dans le giron de Tbilissi. Ainsi que le disait Vladimir Jirinovsky, nationaliste russe pur et dur : « Chevardnadze au moins nous était fidèle », tandis que ces nouveaux dirigeants « vont mettre l'Abkhazie et l'Ossétie du Sud à feu et à sang ».

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