告别革命了?

“ 哥伦比亚革命武装力量完蛋了,不管它们还有多少人员和武器。” 鉴于其在拉丁美洲左翼革命武装力量问题上无能人能比的洞察力,前萨尔瓦多游击队领导人霍亚金·维拉洛布思(Joaquín Villalobos)关于哥伦比亚缉毒游击战的珍贵结论值得人们思考。同样,委内瑞拉总统雨果·查韦斯的意识形态导师海因兹·迪特里奇,几乎含泪地承认“查韦斯关于哥伦比亚革命武装力量的讲话(号召它抛弃武装斗争并释放人质)相当于是向华盛顿的半球野心无条件的投降”,也是如此。

不管这些判断最终看起来多么草率,但是它确实显示了该地区历史最长的也是最后的政治军事组织似乎终于濒于失败。在由美国提供经费的哥伦比亚计划以及良好运气——例如在三个月前袭击位于厄瓜多尔的哥伦比亚革命武装力量营地时发现的成千的证明其有罪的电脑文件——的帮助下,哥伦比亚总统阿尔瓦罗·乌里韦的“民主安全”策略看起来有了回报,

如果接下来几个月的情形证实了哥伦比亚革命武装力量的灭亡,拉丁美洲将最终摆脱其在过去半个世纪里的一个主要灾难。至少从1956年12月开始,当菲得尔和劳尔·卡斯特罗以及一个年青的阿根廷医生——后来闻名于世的切·格瓦拉,从墨西哥的图斯潘港出发航行到古巴并开始书写一段历史后,该地区已经见证了无数的小规模左翼革命团体试图通过武装起义来取得政权事例。它们都引用19世纪和20世纪初期的英雄先例以及强调在右翼的残暴独裁统治下——例如巴蒂斯塔在古巴的独裁统治,索摩查在尼加拉瓜的独裁统治,以及军事寡头联合体在危地马拉、萨尔瓦多、玻利维亚、阿根廷、秘鲁、乌拉圭和其他地方-包括哥伦比亚的独裁统治,不可能用其他方式取得政权。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/qoZmqp2/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now