Paul Lachine

Adieu à l’Euro?

MUNICH – « Ce n’est pas l’euro qui est en danger, mais les finances publiques de quelques pays européens. » On entend cela tous les jours ; et pourtant, ce n’est pas vrai. C’est bel et bien l’euro lui-même qui est en danger, parce que les pays en crise ont trop fait tourner la planche à billet de la zone euro au cours des dernières années.

Quelques 90% de la dette de refinancement que les banques commerciales des pays GIPS (Grèce, Irlande, Portugal et Espagne) détiennent auprès de leur banque centrale nationale respective ont servi à financer des entrées nettes de biens et d’actifs en provenance d’autres pays de la zone euro. Deux tiers de tous les prêts de refinancement au sein de la zone euro ont été accordés dans les pays GIPS, malgré le fait que ces pays ne représentent que 18% du PIB de la zone euro. En effet, au cours des trois dernières années, 88% des déficits courants de ces pays ont été financés au moyen de crédits au sein de l’Eurosystème.

A la fin 2010, le montant des crédits de la BCE, financés principalement par la Bundesbank allemande, s’élevaient à 340 milliards d’euros. Ce montant inclut les crédits de la BCE qui ont financé les fuites de capitaux d’Irlande, s’élevant à 130 milliards d’euros au cours des trois dernières années. Le programme de renflouement de la BCE a permis aux pays de la périphérie de continuer à vivre au-dessus de leurs moyens, et aux riches détenteurs d’actifs de déplacer leur richesse vers d’autres pays.

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