Woman in water amidst boats

Nadcházející vlna ropných uprchlíků

NAIROBI – Myšlenka, že ropné bohatství může být prokletím, je stará – a měla by být jasná bez vysvětlování. Po několika desetiletích ceny energií vždy vystoupají do oblak a rozpoutají sháňku po nových zdrojích ropy. Nabídka nakonec překoná poptávku a ceny se znenadání zřítí k zemi. Čím tvrdší a překotnější pád, tím větší má sociální a geopolitické důsledky.

K velkému ropnému propadu došlo naposledy v 80. letech minulého století – a změnil svět. Jako mladý muž pracující na jaře roku 1980 na texaském ropném poli jsem sledoval, jak americká referenční surová ropa vystoupala až na 45 dolarů za barel – tedy 138 dolarů v dnešních hodnotách. K roku 1988 už se ropa prodávala za necelých devět dolarů za barel, přičemž jen během roku 1986 přišla o polovinu své hodnoty.

Propad cen benzinu byl ku prospěchu řidičů. Všude jinde ale byly důsledky katastrofální – nejvíc v Sovětském svazu, jehož hospodářství bylo silně závislé na vývozu ropy. Tamní tempo růstu se propadlo na třetinu své hladiny ze 70. let. Jak Sovětský svaz slábl, sílil sociální neklid, který v roce 1989 vyvrcholil pádem Berlínské zdi a zhroucením komunismu napříč střední a východní Evropou. Dva roky nato se poroučel samotný Sovětský svaz.

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