WEF in Davos Fabrice Coffrini/Getty Images

自由民主的双赢幻想

华盛顿—很少有分析师预计到英国会投票退出欧盟,或者美国会选择特朗普做下任总统。但很快,人们就对这些误算的发生形成了一致解释。但是,面对如此复杂和重大的形势,我们必须小心翼翼,不能轻率推论。

目前的共识指责“精英”——学术、媒体和商业精英——过度沉浸在他们相对大同互通的世界中,而没有去聆听教育和互通程度较低的人民的声音。由于后者正是从全球化中获益最少的群体,他们也最有可能拒绝超国家制度(英国退欧的例子)和建制派候选人(特朗普的例子)。从诸多方面讲,忽视他们是一个显而易见的错误。

这一观点有很大的价值。“集体思维”时不时折磨着当今金融和知识精英,包括民意调查专家,他们常常具有相近的教育背景,在一起工作,阅读同样的媒体,出席从达沃斯到阿斯彭的同样的会议和场合。

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