Фантазии, безумия и финансы

Барселона – Финансовый и кредитный кризис, а также последующий экономический спад серьезно подорвали доверие к финансовым рынкам и институтам, а также биржевым брокерам. Все большее количество людей утверждают, что рынки характеризуются нелогичностью, пузырями, фантазиями и безумием, и что на субъекты экономической деятельности влияют поведенческие предубеждения.

Недавно вышедшая книга Джорджа Сороса о кредитном кризисе является хорошим примером подобного мышления. Автор даже делает заключение, что сегодняшняя финансовая теория является устаревшей. Точка зрения Сороса, в основном, сводится к идее, что сегодняшний финансовый кризис является заключительным доказательством того, что рынки обрабатывают информацию не достаточно эффективно. Если это так, то мы ближе к точке зрения Джона Мэйнарда Кейнса относительно видения рынка в качестве казино, чем точке зрения Фридриха вон Хаека, который видит в рынке изумительный механизм для обработки разрозненной информации.

Например, недавний скачек цен на нефть произошел из-за иррационального безумия на фьючерсных рынках. Операторы рынка систематически ошибались в подсчетах, были самонадеянны относительно своей информации и слишком остро реагировали на новости. Тем не менее, я полагаю, что этим явлениям есть и другое объяснение, которое основано на рациональном вычислении и обработке информации финансовыми институтами и биржевыми брокерами.

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