Les Caprices de la Finance

Barcelona – La crise financière, l’étranglement du crédit, puis la récession économique, ont sérieusement ébranlé la crédibilité des marchés, des institutions et des traders. De plus en plus de gens soutiennent qu’irrationalité, bulles, lubies et hystérie sont le propre des marchés et que les acteurs financiers ne sont animés que de présupposés.

Le dernier livre de George Soros sur la crise illustre bien cette ligne de pensée. Celui-ci va jusqu’à suggérer que la théorie financière dominante est obsolète. En résumé, il pense que les marchés ne brassent pas l’information de manière efficace et que la crise financière actuelle en est la preuve absolue. S’il a raison, on est plus près d’un John Maynard Keynes, pour qui le marché n’est qu’un casino, que d’un Friedrich von Hayek, pour qui il est au contraire une mécanique qui centralise à merveille l’information.

La récente pointe des prix du pétrole serait due par exemple à un accès d’irrationalité sur les marchés à terme. Les intervenants du marché se seraient systématiquement trompé dans leurs estimations, du fait de la trop grande confiance qu’ils accordaient à leurs sources d’information et de la trop grande importance qu’ils attribuaient à l’actualité. Mais pour moi, l’explication de ces phénomènes relève plutôt du comportement des institutions et des traders devant le calcul rationnel et le traitement de l’information.

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