Das zweite Atomzeitalter

NEW HAVEN – Dem Abschuss einer nordkoreanischen Langstreckenrakete Mitte Dezember folgte eine Flut weltweiter Verurteilungen, die in ihrer Berechenbarkeit und Hilflosigkeit schon fast komisch wirkte. Allerdings veranschaulichte dieser Raketenstart eine umfassendere Realität, die nicht mehr ignoriert werden kann: die Welt ist in ein zweites Atomzeitalter eingetreten.  Die Atombombe kehrt zum zweiten Akt zurück, für eine Zugabe im Zeitalter nach dem Kalten Krieg. Dieses umfassendere Muster muss verstanden werden, um damit umgehen zu können.

Die Konturen des zweiten Atomzeitalters sind noch dabei, Gestalt anzunehmen. Doch die nächsten paar Jahre werden besonders gefährlich, weil Neues auch Gefahren schafft, da Regeln und Grenzen neu definiert werden. Das nahm im ersten Atomzeitalter mindestens zehn Jahre in Anspruch und diesmal könnte es genauso lange dauern.

Im Nahen Osten sowie in Süd- und Ostasien treten alte Rivalitäten in einem atomaren Kontext zu Tage. Aus diesem Grund haben sich militärische Dispositive im gesamten Nahen Osten verändert. Ein Teil des israelischen Atomarsenals wird auf hohe See verlagert, wobei Atomsprengköpfe auf Diesel-U-Boote transferiert werden, um diese Sprengköpfe vor Überraschungsangriffen zu schützen. Außerdem schickt Israel eine neue Generation von Satelliten in den Weltraum, um im Falle von Vorbereitungen für Raketenangriffe frühzeitig gewarnt zu sein. Wenn die mobilen Raketen des Iran ihre Stützpunkte verlassen, möchte Israel umgehend im Bilde sein.

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