Le deuxième âge nucléaire

NEW HAVEN – Le lancement par la Corée du Nord d’un missile longue portée à la mi décembre a été immédiatement suivi d’une vague de condamnations internationales, presque comiques tant elles étaient impuissantes et prévisibles. Mais ce lancement a souligné une nouvelle réalité qui ne peut plus être ignorée : le monde est entré dans un deuxième âge nucléaire. La bombe atomique est de retour pour un second acte, un rappel post Guerre froide. Cette tendance plus générale doit être comprise pour être gérée.

Les paramètres de ce deuxième âge nucléaire évoluent encore. Mais les prochaines années seront particulièrement périlleuses, parce que la nouveauté même crée des dangers au fur et à mesure que les règles et les lignes rouges sont redéfinies. Dix ans ont été nécessaires pour stabiliser la situation lors du premier âge nucléaire et ce sera sans doute également le cas pour le deuxième.

Au Moyen-Orient et en Asie du Sud et de l’Est, les anciennes rivalités s’expriment aujourd’hui dans un contexte nucléarisé, qui a déjà modifié les positions militaires au Moyen-Orient. Une partie de l’arsenal nucléaire israélien a été déplacée en mer, avec des ogives nucléaires embarquées à bord de sous-marins à propulsion diesel, de façon à éviter que ces armes soient ciblées par une attaque surprise. Israël a également lancé une nouvelle génération de satellites qui le préviendra rapidement de toute préparation de tirs de missiles par d’autres pays. Si les missiles mobiles iraniens se dispersent, Israël en sera immédiatement averti.

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