第二核时代

纽黑文—12月中旬,朝鲜发射了远程导弹,此举引起了全球的谴责,这些无关痛痒的谴责闭着眼睛都能想到,显得颇为滑稽。但朝鲜的发射动作凸显了已不可再坐视不理的大现实:世界进入了第二个核时代。原子弹在后冷战时代卷土重来了。若要处理好这一局面,就必须更好地理解大图景。

第二核时代的轮廓仍在形成之中。但未来几年将充满危险,因为随着规则和红线的定义,新情况本身就制造着危险。在第一核时代中,整个过程历时十年之久,这一回也不会不同。

在中东、南亚和东亚,旧对手们正在开展核竞赛。这已经改变了中东的军事格局。以色列的部分核武器正在向大海移动,常规动力潜艇装载着原子弹头,以防止它们成为突然袭击的目标。以色列还部署了新一代卫星系统,以提供其他国家准备进行导弹打击的先期预警。如果伊朗机动导弹出现动静,以色列希望马上能够知晓。

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