Перед лицом угрозы дефляции

Многие банкиры центральных банков похожи на генерала из пословицы, который строит планы сражений, похожих на сражения последней войны. Но в отличие от глядящей в прошлое военной стратегии, ошибочная денежно-кредитная политика неминуемо наносит ущерб, а не просто создает причиняющие беспокойство риски.

Банкиры центральных банков продолжают сражаться с инфляцией, несмотря на то, что они уже справились с ней, и в результате этих действий они могут не справиться с самой последней угрозой - глобальной дефляцией . Падение цен парализовало японскую экономику на десять лет. В Китае и Гонконге в последнее время также наблюдалось резкое падение цен. Когда лидеры самых богатых стран мира соберутся на очередной встрече "Большой семерки" в Канаде, они должны задать себе вопрос, не ждет ли США и Европу похожая судьба.

Если следовать разумной политике, то сдерживание дефляции не должно быть сложной проблемой. Кое-кто утверждает, что резкое увеличение производительности, вызванное появлением новых технологий, ростом конкуренции, обусловленной процессом глобализации и развитием электронной коммерции, основанной на использовании возможностей Интернета, создает мир, в котором фирмы должны непрерывно снижать цены. Но это мнение основано на ошибочных предположениях. Ясно, что относительные цены, которые должны иметь различные товары и услуги, определяются иными силами, нежели денежно-кредитная политика страны, и они действительно имеют такие цены независимо от денежно-кредитной политики. Однако эти силы не определяют абсолютные цены любого товара (например, в долларах США).

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