Con los ojos cerrados frente al calentamiento global

Como dice el profesor de Harvard Rob Stavins, el Tratado de Kyoto sobre el control del cambio climático fue "muy poco, muy rápido". Por un lado, puesto que sólo incluyó a los países que se preveía que emitirían aproximadamente la mitad de los gases de efecto invernadero a nivel mundial hacia mediados de siglo, no fue una salvaguardia efectiva de largo plazo contra los peligros del calentamiento global. Por el otro, dado que requería disminuciones significativas y costosas de las emisiones de los países industriales, amenazaba con imponer costos altos inmediatos a las economías estadounidense, europea y japonesa. En resumen, el acuerdo de Kyoto significaba mucho sacrificio a corto plazo y pocas ventajas a largo plazo.

Los economistas de la Unión Europea y los estadounidenses de la administración Clinton presentaban argumentos para aprobar el Tratado de Kyoto creando modelos para algo que no era el Tratado de Kyoto. Preveían que los países en desarrollo ingresarían al marco de Kyoto en algún momento e intercambiarían sus derechos de emisión de CO2 y otros gases de efecto invernadero por asistencia para el desarrollo con los Estados Unidos y Europa.

Pero después de todos esos años, no me he encontrado con alguien que sepa de lo que habla que esté dispuesto a defender a Kyoto como una política pública global sustancial. "Era una forma de hacer que las cosas se empezaran a mover" en lo que se refiere al cambio climático, dicen algunos. "Era una forma de hacer que el mundo tomara conciencia de la seriedad del problema", dicen otros.

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