对全球气候变暖视而不见

哈佛大学教授罗伯·斯塔文曾说,有关控制全球气候变化的京都议定书“太少又太快”。一方面,由于议定书只涉及到本世纪中叶排放全世界温室气体大约一半的国家,因此它并不是针对全球气候变暖危险的长期有效的防备措施。另一方面,由于它要求工业化国家短期内花费巨资大幅削减排放数量,因此对美国、欧洲以及日本的经济造成巨大损失。简而言之,京都议定书意味着为了微小的长期效应而忍受巨大的短期痛苦。

克林顿时期欧盟和美国的经济学家主张在为本不属于京都议定书的东西建立模式的条件下而通过该议定书。他们预计,发展中国家会在某一时候加入议定书框架,并且会同美国和欧盟交换二氧化碳和其他温室气体排放权利而换取发展援助。

但是,这么多年过去,把京都议定书辩解为实在的全球性公共政策、同时又言而有据的人,我还没有遇到一个。关于气候变化,有人说:“这是开端”。另一些人说:“这可以唤醒世界,让他们知道问题的严重性”。

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