Brasil, país exuberante

La bolsa de valores de Brasil, según lo medido por el índice Bovespa corregido por la inflación, se ha más que cuadruplicado en valor desde la primera victoria electoral del Presidente Luis Inácio Lula da Silva en octubre de 2002, y hoy está en casi el doble del pico alcanzado en el año 2000. El comparación, el Índice Compuesto de Shanghai corregido por la inflación sólo se duplicó durante este periodo, mientras que la bolsa de valores estadounidense, medida según el índice Standard and Poor’s 500 corregido por la inflación, aumentó sólo un 50%. De hecho, Estados Unidos nunca ha experimentado una cuadruplicación de los precios de las acciones en menos de 5 años, incluso durante la burbuja de fines de los años 90.

Considerando que Lula es un izquierdista abierto que cuenta entra sus amigos a Hugo Chávez y Fidel Castro, el desempeño de Brasil resulta aún más sorprendente. ¿Cómo se las pudo arreglar para presidir un auge tan espectacular del mercado de valores? ¿Son los brasileños demasiado exuberantes? ¿Tal vez es el momento de que los inversionistas extranjeros saquen su dinero fuera del país?

Ciertamente, los movimientos de los mercados de valores son difíciles de explicar, pero hay razones para creer que los brasileños pueden ser racionalmente exuberantes. Las ganancias corporativas han subido en Brasil casi tan rápido como los precios de las acciones. Con una relación entre precios y ganancias que se mantiene estable y moderada, el auge del mercado de valores no parece reflejar meramente la psicología de los inversionistas.

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