Brasilien im Überschwang

Gemessen an den Werten des inflationsbereinigten Bovespa-Index hat sich der Wert des brasilianischen Aktienmarktes seit der Amtsübernahme von Präsident Luis Inácio Lula da Silva im Oktober 2002 mehr als vervierfacht und liegt momentan beinahe doppelt so hoch wie der Spitzenwert im Jahr 2000. Im Vergleich dazu konnte sich der inflationsbereinigte Shanghai Composite in diesem Zeitraum lediglich verdoppeln und der amerikanische Aktienmarkt legte, gemessen am inflationsbereinigten Standard and Poor’s 500, nur um 50 % zu. In den Vereinigten Staaten kam es überhaupt noch nie zu einer Vervierfachung der Aktienkurse in weniger als fünf Jahren, nicht einmal während der Blase in den späten 1990ern.

Angesichts der Tatsache, dass es sich bei Lula um einen bekennenden Linken handelt, der Hugo Chávez und Fidel Castro zu seinen Freunden zählt, ist die Wirtschaftsleistung Brasiliens umso erstaunlicher. Wie hat Lula es geschafft, einen derart spektakulären Aktienmarktboom anzuführen? Sind die Brasilianer zu überschwänglich? Ist es jetzt für die Investoren womöglich Zeit, ihre Gelder aus Brasilien abzuziehen?

Die Bewegung auf den Aktienmärkten ist natürlich schwer zu erklären, aber es gibt Grund zur Annahme, dass der brasilianische Überschwang rational begründet sein könnte. Die Unternehmenserträge in Brasilien sind beinahe so stark gestiegen wie die Aktienkurse. Nachdem das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis stabil und gemäßigt geblieben ist, scheint der Aktienboom nicht nur eine Frage der psychologischen Befindlichkeit der Investoren zu sein.

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