Rozjařená Brazílie

Brazilský akciový trh, měřeno indexem Bovespa upraveným o inflaci, od prvního volebního vítězství prezidenta Luize Inácia Luly da Silva v říjnu 2002 více než zečtyřnásobil svou hodnotu a nyní dosahuje bezmála dvojnásobku maxima dosaženého v roce 2000. Pro srovnání, šanghajský kompozitní index upravený o inflaci se během téže doby pouze zdvojnásobil, zatímco americký akciový trh, podle indexu Standard and Poor’s 500 upraveného o inflaci, se zvýšil jen o 50%. Ba Spojené státy nikdy nezažily čtyřnásobný nárůst cen akcií za méně než pět let, ani během bubliny konce 90. let minulého století.

Vzhledem k tomu, že Lula je nepokrytý levičák, který mezi své přátele počítá Huga Cháveze a Fidela Castra, brazilská výkonnost je tím překvapivější. Jak jen dokázal plnit úlohu prezidenta nad takto velkolepým boomem akciového trhu? Jsou Brazilci příliš rozjaření? Nenadchází čas, kdy by zahraniční investoři měli své peníze stáhnout?

Pohyby akciových trhů je bezpochyby těžké vysvětlovat, ale existují důvody k přesvědčení, že Brazilci mohou být racionálně rozjaření. Podnikové zisky v Brazílii šly nahoru zhruba stejně rychle jako ceny akcií. Poněvadž poměr P/E (ceny akcie a zisku na akcii) zůstává stabilní a uměřený, nezdá se, že by boom na akciovém trhu reflektoval pouze psychologii investorů.

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