活力四射的巴西

自从路易斯•伊纳西奥•卢拉•达席尔瓦(Luis Inácio Lula da Silva)总统2002年10月首度当选以来,巴西的圣保罗证交所指数(Bovespa index)在扣除通胀因素后的价值增长已经超过四倍,而且目前所处的点位是2000年高点的两倍。相比之下,扣除通胀因素后的上证综指仅仅上涨了两倍,而美国股市如果用扣除通胀因素的标准普尔500来衡量,增长率只有50%。事实上,美国股价还从未在不到五年的时间内经历过四倍的增长,即便在20世纪90年代后期的股市泡沫中也不例外。

考虑到卢拉是人所共知的左翼分子,坚定地把雨果·查维兹(Hugo Chávez)和菲德尔·卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro)列为自己的伙伴,巴西的经济发展就更令人感到震惊。他是怎样导演了这样一场蔚为壮观的股市大发展?巴西股市是不是太过繁荣了?国外投资者是不是应该撤出资金?

股市的运行肯定很难解释,但我们有理由认为巴西仍然属于 理性的 繁荣。巴西企业盈利的增速几乎可以同股价的增速相媲美。由于市盈率保持稳定并相对合理,目前的股市繁荣似乎不只是投资者心理的反映。

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