Artistic rendering of Earth

Clima estremo e crescita globale

CAMBRIDGE – Fino a poco tempo fa, era opinione comune tra i macroeconomisti che le fluttuazioni climatiche di breve periodo non incidessero granché sull’attività economica. In un mese di marzo inaspettatamente mite, le assunzioni nel settore edilizio possono registrare un incremento superiore al normale, ma poi ci pensano aprile e maggio a pareggiare i conti. E se le forti piogge scoraggiano le persone dal fare shopping ad agosto, vuol dire semplicemente che esse spenderanno di più a settembre.

Recenti studi economici, rafforzati da un evento di El Niño particolarmente intenso– un complesso fenomeno climatico globale caratterizzato da un eccezionale riscaldamento delle correnti oceaniche al largo delle coste dell’Ecuador e del Perù – hanno però spinto a rivedere questa posizione.

Il clima estremo certamente influenza alcune statistiche macroeconomiche di breve termine, ad esempio aggiungendo o sottraendo 100.000 posti di lavoro alle cifre mensili sull’occupazione statunitense, il dato economico più monitorato del mondo e in genere quello ritenuto tra i più attendibili. L’impatto di eventi meteorologici collegati a El Niño come quello di quest’anno (conosciuto più precisamente come “El Niño - Oscillazione Meridionale”) può essere particolarmente forte a causa della loro portata globale.

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