Artistic rendering of Earth

Extremwetter und globales Wachstum

CAMBRIDGE – Bis vor kurzem vertraten Makroökonomen gewöhnlich die Ansicht, dass kurzfristige Wetterschwankungen keine großen Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaftsaktivität hätten. Vielleicht, so die gängige Meinung, wären die Einstellungen im Baugewerbe geringfügig höher, wenn das Wetter im März ungewöhnlich mild ist, doch das würde sich im April und Mai schon wieder ausgleichen. Und wenn schwere Regenfälle die Leute im August vom Einkaufen abhielten, würden sie eben im September mehr ausgeben.

Doch aktuelle wirtschaftliche Forschungsergebnisse gestützt durch ein außergewöhnlich starkes El-Niño-Phänomen – ein komplexes globales Klimaereignis, das durch außergewöhnlich warmes Pazifikwasser vor den Küsten von Ecuador und Peru gekennzeichnet ist – stellen diese Ansicht nun in Frage.

Mit Sicherheit bringt Extremwetter wichtige kurzfristige Kennzahlen durcheinander. Es kann die monatliche Beschäftigung in den USA um 100.000 Jobs erhöhen oder verringern, und diese ist die meistbeachtete wirtschaftliche Kennzahl weltweit – und gilt im Allgemeinen als besonders präzise. Die Auswirkungen von mit El Niño verbundenen Wetterphänomenen wie in diesem Jahr (genauer als „ENSO-Phänomene“ bezeichnet) können aufgrund von deren globaler Reichweite besonders groß sein.

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