Artistic rendering of Earth

Dérèglement climatique et croissance mondiale

CAMBRIDGE – Encore récemment, la plupart des macroéconomistes pensaient que les fluctuations météorologiques n'avaient que peu d'incidence sur l'activité économique. Si le temps est exceptionnellement tiède en mars, le secteur du bâtiment recrutera sans doute davantage, mais cela se traduira par une baisse des embauches en avril et en mai. Si des averses découragent les consommateurs de faire certains achats en août, ils dépenseront davantage en septembre.

Mais des études économiques récentes remettent en cause cette idée. L'intensité inhabituelle du phénomène climatique El Niño au cours des derniers mois (un phénomène complexe qui provoque un réchauffement important de l'Océan pacifique au large de l'Equateur et du Pérou) a poussé à leur mise en oeuvre.

Les évènements climatiques extrêmes se traduisent dans les statistiques macroéconomiques. Aux USA ils peuvent entraîner la création ou la disparition de 100 000 emplois par mois, or le nombre de créations ou de disparitions d'emplois est l'indicateur économique le plus consulté dans le monde, et peut-être l'un des plus fiables. Des évènements comparables aux oscillations australes d'El Niño, particulièrement marquées cette année, peuvent avoir des conséquences planétaires.

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