Artistic rendering of Earth

极端天气和全球增长

坎布里奇—直到最近,宏观经济学家的惯常思维一直是短期天气波动对经济活动影响不大。如果3月份的天气反常地温和,那么建筑业也许会雇用更多工人,但到了4月和5月就会出现相反的情况。如果8月份的大雨让人们打消了上街购物的冲动,那么他们会在9月份买更多东西。

但最近,超强厄尔尼诺让最新经济学研究纷纷开始反思这一观点。厄尔尼诺是一种复杂的全球气候事件,其标志是厄瓜多尔和秘鲁太平洋沿岸海水特别温暖。

极端天气显然会对重要的短期宏观经济数据造成影响。它可以让全世界最受关注、也被广泛认为是最准确的经济指标之一的美国月度就业增加或减少100,000人。像今年这样的厄尔尼诺相关天气事件(更准确地说应该是“厄尔尼诺南部震荡”)的影响因为其全球效应而显得尤其巨大。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To access our archive, please log in or register now and read two articles from our archive every month for free. For unlimited access to our archive, as well as to the unrivaled analysis of PS On Point, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/FMrmcEV/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.