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Quali novità sui tassi di interesse bassi?

CAMBRIDGE – Raramente passano giorni senza articoli sulla stampa finanziaria che trattano del perché i tassi di interesse sono rimasti così bassi per così tanto tempo. Questo è uno di quegli articoli. Quindi partiamo chiarendo quali tassi di interesse sono bassi e cosa è o non è nuovo o senza precedenti.

I tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti e in via di sviluppo sono principalmente influenzati da ciò che accade nelle principali economie mondiali, e il ciclo di tassi di interesse bassi pluriennale in corso affonda le sue radici negli Stati Uniti, Europa e Giappone. I tassi di interesse bassi rappresentano per lo più la “nuova normalità” delle economie avanzate. 

I tassi di interesse (a breve e lunga scadenza) avevano registrato un andamento inferiore nella maggior parte delle economie avanzate (a vari livelli) dagli anni ‘80, mentre l'inflazione è scesa drasticamente. Negli anni precedenti la crisi finanziaria del 2008-2009, l'ex presidente della Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke ha più volte sottolineato il ruolo di un "eccesso di risparmio" globale (in particolare in Cina) per spiegare i tassi più bassi.

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