O problema com a Coreia do Norte

NOVA IORQUE – Ninguém se importaria muito com a Coreia do Norte - um país pequeno e isolado com 24 milhões de pessoas, governado por uma dinastia grotesca que se auto-intitula comunista - se não fosse pelas suas armas nucleares. O seu actual Presidente, Kim Jong-un, o neto de 30 anos de idade do fundador da Coreia do Norte e “Grande Líder”, ameaça agora transformar Seul, a capital rica e movimentada da Coreia do Sul, num “mar de fogo”. As bases militares norte-americanas na Ásia e no Pacífico também estão na sua lista de alvos.

Kim sabe muito bem que uma guerra contra os Estados Unidos significaria provavelmente a destruição do seu próprio país, que é um dos mais pobres do mundo. O seu governo nem sequer consegue alimentar o seu próprio povo, que é regularmente devastado pela fome. Na capital, Pyongyang, vitrina do país, nem sequer há electricidade suficiente para manter as luzes ligadas nos maiores hotéis. Por isso, ameaçar atacar o país mais poderoso do mundo pode parecer como um acto de loucura.

Mas não é útil nem muito plausível supor que Kim Jong-un e os seus conselheiros militares sejam loucos. Há, seguramente, algo desorganizado no sistema político da Coreia do Norte. A tirania da família de Kim é baseada numa mistura de fanatismo ideológico com uma realpolitik cruel e com paranóia. Mas este cocktail letal tem uma história que precisa de ser explicada.

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